Money that stops leaving households
Unlike the prediction market question, there is no cheaper channel waiting on the other side of this one. Most of the country has no legal online casino at all, so a ban does not move the spending — it mostly ends it. The money stays where it was.
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Value
The stream is money staying in a household rather than moving to an operating company, priced at the middle of the scale like any other money. What makes it a gain is the gap between the two ends: the spending concentrates among people who can least afford it, and the companies are privately held foreign operators whose owners sit at the top of any income distribution. Only that gap is counted, not the whole sum. The enjoyment players lose along with the spending is real and is counted as its own argument against this measure rather than netted away here. The value is the middle of the scale, because the stream is a transfer of money and the distance between its two ends is priced in the Impact.
Impact
About 4.6 billion euro a year of player spending sits in states that have not banned the model [1]. Where it goes when the model is closed is what decides the size. Only seven states license online casino games, so for most players there is no licensed alternative within reach; a fifth of the spending is assumed to move offshore and is counted against this measure, another fifth moves to sports betting or a licensed casino where one exists, and the remaining three fifths simply stops — 2.76 billion euro a year staying with households, in a range from 1.4 to 3.7 billion. The two ends of that transfer differ sharply: the players carry a weight of 1.3, because the spending concentrates among people under financial pressure, and the operators are privately held companies whose owners carry 0.5. The difference of 0.8 gives 2.21 billion euro a year. The Impact is the largest in this debate and it is large for a structural reason: this is one of the few gambling measures with no cheaper channel on the other side of it.
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| Player spending in states that have not banned the model 7.2 billion dollars of consumer spending [1], converted at 1.15 dollars to the euro (setting, range 1.05 to 1.25) and reduced by the eleven states that have already banned the model — the remaining states hold roughly three quarters of the market [1] | 7.2 billion dollars, less the eleven states that have banned them | 4.6 billion euro | |
| × | Share that simply stops Setting, range 30 to 80 percent: a fifth moves offshore and a fifth to sports betting or a licensed casino; online casino games are legal in only seven states [2] | 60 % | 2.76 billion euro |
| × | Difference in what a euro is worth the spending concentrates among people under financial pressure; the operators are privately held companies whose owners sit at the top of the distribution | 1.3 minus 0.5 | 2.21 billion euro |
| ÷ | Normalised Impact scale of this evaluation | 500 million euro a point | 4.42 |
Plausibility
The market size is an industry estimate rather than a regulatory return, which is the main weakness: nobody files anything, so the 7.2 billion dollar figure and its growth from 4.8 billion in 2023 come from analysts reading app-store and payment data [1]. The counterfactual is the current position in the states that have not banned the model. What is genuinely estimated is where the spending goes, and the assumption that three fifths of it stops rests on a structural fact rather than a measurement: online casino games are legal in seven states and nowhere else, so the substitute that exists for sports betting does not exist here. The confounder that would matter is offshore substitution, which is booked as its own argument against this measure rather than discounted here. Eleven states have already banned the model, so this could be measured and has not been. Reverse causation does not arise. The Plausibility is at the upper end of what a projection can carry: the structure is clear and the market figure behind it is an estimate rather than a return.
Counterfactual: the current position in states that have not banned the model. Design: definitional — closing a product ends the spending on it; the estimated elements are the market size, which is an analyst estimate rather than a regulatory return, and where the spending goes. Confounder: offshore substitution, booked as con-2 rather than discounted here. Direction: not applicable. Ceiling: a projection carries 6.0 at most, and that binds. The absence of a licensed online casino in 43 states is the structural fact carrying the three-fifths assumption.